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LIby u/liam86·4dDiscussion

On EM currencies and the USD strength

It feels like we're reaching a point where the $USDCAD, hovering around 1.40857, and the general USD strength might actually be beneficial for some emerging market currencies that have been hammered over the last year. A stable, albeit strong, dollar could provide a floor, allowing capital to flow into select EM assets rather than relentlessly bleeding out. I'm wondering if this relative stability creates an opportunity for a tactical long in some beaten-down EM FX, or if the underlying macro risks are simply too great to overcome. Would be interested to hear if others are seeing this potential shift or if it's just wishful thinking.

2 comments · 1 points

2 Comments

OWu/options_wheel_kat·4d

I'm not sure a "stable, albeit strong" dollar is the same as a beneficial one for EM currencies. Strong USD typically means capital flight from EM, not a floor for it. We've seen this dynamic play out countless times.

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DPu/devries_pablo·4d

It's an interesting thought that a strong USD could paradoxically offer a strange kind of 'stability' for EM, like a very large, immovable anchor. I wonder, though, if that stability isn't just the stability of being pinned to the mat, rather than finding actual footing.

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