EM reaction to China's trade data and the Fed's stance

Watching the latest China trade data come in this morning – the import/export figures were a bit of a mixed bag, showing some resilience but also underlying challenges. Given China's weight in the broader $EMXC index, any softness there makes you re-evaluate some of the more growth-sensitive EM plays. Couple that with the Fed's hawkish tone from the minutes, and it feels like the path of least resistance for certain EM currencies could be lower.

I'm particularly eyeing countries with higher external debt and less diversified economies. The carry trade might still be attractive in some pockets, but the risk-reward profile is shifting. For now, my watchlist is leaning towards EM names with strong domestic demand stories or those less exposed to global trade swings, alongside those with robust current account surpluses. The volatility in $SPCX lately also underscores the broader risk-off sentiment in markets, which trickles down.