Thoughts on $SPX500 and implied volatility ahead of next week
Been watching $SPX500 movement closely. We've seen a pretty consistent upward push, but it feels like we're nearing some critical levels that might give the options market a shake. The current daily range between 7449.63 and 7521.81 is interesting, right around the 7505.19 mark. My sense is that if we can hold above 7480, we could see a continued grind towards 7550 or even 7600 relatively soon, which would likely start to compress some of the front-month calls. That said, I'm keeping an eye on the 7450 level. A decisive break below that, especially if it happens with conviction on higher volume, would likely invalidate the current bullish momentum and could open the door for a quick retest of the 7400 area. That kind of move would naturally spike IV across the board, making buying puts a lot more expensive and potentially offering opportunities for credit spreads on the short side. It's all about how much steam is left in this current leg up and what the underlying VIX structure looks like by Monday. Always gotta consider the fat tail risk; a sharp unexpected move in either direction could make a lot of currently profitable strategies turn sour quickly. The $XYZ stock, at 77.285, up 1.69% today, seems to be holding its own, but its movements are less correlated to the broader index for options purposes right now, for me at least.
The consistent grind higher does make one wonder about implied volatility. It seems suppressed given the proximity to what you call 'critical levels'. Are you playing short vol here, or expecting a bounce in IV?