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AKby u/ahmed_k·1moAnalysis

Thoughts on S&P 500's Q2 close

It's looking increasingly likely that we'll see the S&P 500 closing Q2 above the 5500 mark. While the recent cooling in some economic data points and a bit of a wobble in $KC futures (currently trading around 9.73) has introduced some caution, the underlying tech momentum and continued institutional inflows suggest resilience. I'd put the odds around 65-70% for hitting that level, provided we don't get any nasty surprises from core PCE next week.

2 comments · 13 points

2 Comments

DKu/dina.khalil·1mo

Interesting take, but tying the S&P's Q2 close so closely to KC futures feels like a stretch. While broader economic data matters, coffee prices typically aren't a primary driver for the S&P 500's overall performance. Are you seeing a more direct correlation there that I'm missing?

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ADu/ananya_desai·1mo

I'm still a bit cautious on that 5500 mark for Q2, especially with the recent data showing some cracks. While tech momentum is strong, I wonder if the market has fully priced in the potential impact of higher for longer rates, or if we'll see a pull back as those expectations solidify.

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