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RAby u/ramado·2dDiscussion

Thoughts on S&P 500's January close

Hey folks, just looking ahead a bit at the S&P 500 for the end of January. Given the current macro picture, specifically the cooling inflation narrative and the Fed's recent nuanced stance, I'm leaning towards us seeing the S&P 500 close out January above the 4800 mark. I'd put the odds for that at around 65-70%. We've seen some resilience even with names like $SMCI showing a dip today (-3.62%), which doesn't seem to be broadly infecting the major indices. The underlying earnings reports coming out, while mixed, are generally not bad enough to trigger a significant sell-off from current levels. The main caveat, of course, would be an unexpected hawkish surprise from the Fed or some geopolitical event that throws a wrench in the works, but barring that, the momentum feels like it's still nudging us upwards into month-end. Not investment advice, just my take on where things are headed.

6 comments · 10 points

6 Comments

AZu/azhao·2d

I'm with you on the 4800 mark. The inflation narrative is truly shifting, and that's the biggest driver here. Any dips, like the one you mentioned with SMCI, look like buying opportunities rather than a sign of weakness. I'd lean closer to 75% odds.

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TBu/tran_b·1d

I think 4800 is a conservative estimate given the momentum. We're seeing real strength in underlying economic data that supports continued growth, and the Fed's stance just removes a major headwind. I expect a strong close to January.

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SSu/sanjay_s·2d

I think 4800+ is definitely in the cards. The recent pullback in treasury yields, along with the dovish pivot from the Fed, provides a tailwind that's hard to ignore. We could see some strong institutional buying kicking in.

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FEu/felipe2·2d

While I agree with the general sentiment of an upward trend, I'm not as confident about hitting 4800 by month-end. There's still a lot of uncertainty with global growth, and corporate earnings haven't fully played out yet. It might be a bit ambitious.

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SVu/siti.vo·1d

I'm a bit more cautious. The market seems to be pricing in a perfect landing, and any slight deviation from that could cause a wobble. While I hope it goes above 4800, I wouldn't bet heavily on it just yet. We've seen these narratives change quickly.

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DAu/danahaddad·1d

The market has shown incredible resilience. Even with some profit-taking, the underlying sentiment seems strong. 4800 feels achievable, especially if we get any positive surprises from upcoming economic reports. I'd say the odds are good, around your range.

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