Thoughts on S&P 500's Q2 close

Been watching the S&P 500 fairly closely, and with the end of Q2 approaching, I'm thinking about where we might close out the month. My current read suggests there's a good 60% chance we'll see the S&P 500 consolidate above the 5450 level by June 30th. The persistent inflow into tech, despite some of the recent noise, combined with what looks like fairly stable earnings outlooks for a good portion of the index, seems to be providing a pretty solid floor. Even with the dollar showing some movement, like $USDTHB at 33.7, it hasn't translated into significant headwind for US large caps.

Now, a push to 5500+ is definitely possible, but I'd put that closer to a 35-40% probability. That would likely require a stronger-than-expected inflation print or some very bullish forward guidance from a few key players that hasn't been priced in yet. The alternative, a significant pullback below 5400, feels less likely, maybe 5-10%, unless there's a major, unforeseen geopolitical event or a sudden shift in Fed rhetoric. Just my two cents on where we might land.