S&P 500's Q2 close: A test of 5300 or a run for 5500?

Been watching the S&P 500 movement lately, and it feels like we're at a bit of a crossroads heading into the end of Q2. On one hand, the underlying macro seems to be holding up, supporting the idea of a continued grind higher. Earnings season mostly wasn't disastrous, and while rates are a constant concern, the market's been remarkably resilient. Tech, especially the usual suspects like $NVDA (sitting at 199.58, still looks strong), continues to lead the charge, papering over some weaknesses elsewhere.

My take is that we're more likely than not to see a retest of the 5300 level before any serious push towards 5500 by month-end. I'd put the odds of seeing 5300 again at around 65-70%. We've seen some distribution in certain names and a bit of sector rotation that suggests a healthy, if shallow, pullback could be on the cards. A lot of the recent gains have been concentrated, and broadening out usually involves a bit of a breather for the leaders. If we do see 5300 hold, then a move towards 5500 in early Q3 becomes much more probable. A break below 5250 would significantly shift my outlook, suggesting a deeper correction is underway. Just my two cents, not financial advice.