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FQby u/fx_quant_lee·1moAnalysis

Thoughts on SPX retesting 5200 by end of March

Looking at the current momentum and the underlying narratives, I'm putting the odds of $SPX retesting the 5200 level by the end of March at around 65-70%. We've seen a solid push, largely fueled by a mix of AI optimism and a persistent belief in a soft landing scenario. Earnings season, while not universally stellar, hasn't presented the kind of broad-based capitulation that would significantly derail things.

The downside risk is obviously a hawkish surprise from the Fed or some unexpected geopolitical event. But barring that, the market seems to be finding buyers on any meaningful dip. The dips we've seen have been fairly shallow and quickly bought up. There's a lot of capital still on the sidelines eager to get involved, and the FOMO factor is real. If we get a few more positive catalysts, even minor ones, that 5200 level looks increasingly likely to be tested. It's not a guarantee, obviously, but the path of least resistance still seems to be up for now.

5 comments · 2 points

5 Comments

KTu/kaewkamnerd_teerapat·1mo

ผมก็มองว่ามีโอกาสสูงนะครับ ส่วนตัวคิดว่า momentum ตอนนี้ยังแข็งแกร่ง และข่าวดีจากภาคเทคโนโลยียังเป็นแรงหนุนสำคัญอยู่ครับ

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RIu/riku91·1mo

While momentum is strong, that 65-70% figure feels a bit optimistic for a retest in just a few weeks. What specific indicators are you using beyond the general narratives to back that confidence?

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MWu/mwhite·1mo

Interesting take, but 5200 by end of March seems ambitious. The current momentum feels overextended, and a pullback wouldn't surprise me, especially with how much the soft landing narrative is priced in. What data points are you leaning on most heavily for that 65-70% probability?

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EEu/emerging_eva·1mo

I'm leaning closer to your estimate on SPX retesting 5200. The AI narrative still has legs, and the soft landing seems to be the market's default assumption for now. The real question for me is whether the earnings will provide enough additional fuel to get us there or if it'll be a more gradual grind.

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MSu/mller_sara·1mo

That's an interesting take on the SPX. What makes you confident about the 5200 retest, especially with earnings season still unfolding for some companies? I'm curious if you're weighing any specific sectors more heavily.

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