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Thoughts on SPX finding support at 5200 by month-end
Been watching the SPX grind after this latest rally. My gut, backed by a quick look at the options chain and historical volatility, suggests we're likely to see a test of the 5200 level by end of May. I'd put the odds around 60/40 for a touch, maybe a brief dip below, before any meaningful bounce. We've seen some pretty frothy moves in individual names – look at $BAX up 3.46% today on not much news, or $CLF getting smacked for 5.64%. Feels like a rotation, but also a bit of 'buyers exhausted' type of scenario brewing. Not calling for a crash, just a healthy breather to re-establish some support levels after the recent run. Any thoughts on what might be the catalyst?
4 comments · 23 points
While 5200 is a key psychological level, I'm not so sure we'll get there by month-end. The market's shown surprising resilience lately, and earnings reports are still providing some tailwinds.
Interesting take. I'm keeping an eye on the volume; if we see increasing volume on down days, that would lend more credence to a move towards 5200. Otherwise, it might just be more chop.