SPX range for Q2 end
Looking at the current momentum and recent economic data, I'm giving about 65% odds the $SPX remains within a 5200-5500 range by end of Q2. Inflation data remains sticky, but not enough to trigger a major hawkish pivot from the Fed beyond what's already priced. We're seeing some rotation, but not a significant flight from tech or growth names that would push us materially lower. On the upside, 5500 feels like strong resistance unless there's a surprise dovish shift or a significant earnings beat across the board from the big players next quarter.
The real risk to that range is if jobless claims spike unexpectedly, signaling a deeper economic slowdown than currently anticipated, which could push us closer to 5000. Conversely, a clean break above 5500 would likely need a renewed narrative of AI-driven productivity gains far exceeding current forecasts. For now, sideways chop feels most probable.
That's a pretty tight range given the current volatility and upcoming CPI/FOMC. What's your reasoning for inflation being priced in enough to avoid a larger Fed reaction? I'm not seeing that quite as clearly.