USDMXN path of least resistance

Looking at $USDMXN, we're currently hovering around 17.25. My gut feeling, and the charts mostly agree, is we're likely to see a push towards the 17.00 psychological level by month-end. I'd put the odds around 60/40. The current range, with the day's high at 17.262 and low at 17.24, shows a bit of consolidation but the longer-term sentiment still seems to favor peso strength, albeit slowly. It feels like the market is probing for that next support zone, and 17.00 is the obvious candidate. A bounce isn't out of the question if global risk-off sentiment returns, but right now, that's not the primary driver. It’s more a slow grind down than a sharp drop. Anyone else seeing it that way or am I missing something crucial in the liquidity flows?