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Polymarket and position sizing - how do you guys approach it?
Been dabbling more with Polymarket lately, mostly on political outcomes or big $BTC moves. I get the idea of betting smaller on highly uncertain longshots and bigger on strong convictions, but finding that sweet spot is proving tougher than anticipated. Are you all just using a fixed percentage of your allocated 'play money' per market, or is there a more nuanced approach you'd recommend for sizing positions based on perceived edge and market liquidity? Feel like I'm leaving money on the table sometimes, or overextending when I shouldn't.
1 comments · 1 points
I generally use a modified Kelly Criterion approach, capping my exposure on any single market to 5% of my Polymarket bankroll. It helps to prevent significant drawdowns on less certain plays.