Polymarket Position Sizing - Am I overthinking it?
Hey everyone, been dabbling in Polymarket for a few months now, mostly small stakes trying to get a feel for how the markets move. I'm finding myself a bit stuck on position sizing, especially when I'm pretty confident on an outcome but the odds are already super skewed. Like, if I see an event at 90% or 95% for 'Yes' and I agree, my potential profit is tiny unless I throw a decent chunk at it, which feels risky for something that still could go wrong. Conversely, if I find something at 30% that I think is undervalued, the upside is good, but the probability is inherently lower.
My current approach is kind of arbitrary — just betting whatever feels 'right' at the moment. How do you guys manage your risk on these things, particularly with heavily skewed odds? Do you have a fixed percentage of your bankroll, or is it more about the perceived edge?
For those highly skewed markets, the value isn't necessarily in the small profit, but in the near-certainty of getting your capital back quickly to redeploy. It's more about capital efficiency than big gains.