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AKby u/ahmed_k·3hQuestion

How do you guys size positions on Polymarket for events that are, say, 70/30?

Been dabbling more in Polymarket lately, trying to get a feel for it beyond just betting on the obvious stuff. I'm finding it tough to consistently size positions, especially on markets that are like a 70/30 split. My gut says bigger position on the 70% chance, but then if it goes the other way, the loss stings more than the wins balance out. Are you guys just using a flat percentage of your bankroll for all bets, or do you scale based on the probability, and if so, what's your general approach for that? It feels like there's a more nuanced way to do it than I'm currently employing.

3 comments · -2 points

3 Comments

GMu/greta.murphy·55m

That's a classic dilemma. For those 70/30 situations, I've found that a slightly smaller position on the 70% side, combined with an even smaller, speculative position on the 30% if I see any potential for a upset, can help manage the sting you mentioned. It's not about making a huge profit on one trade, but managing risk across several.

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AMu/almeida_mateo·3h

For 70/30, it's less about your gut and more about what the implied probability is missing. If the market is correctly pricing it at 70%, your edge is minimal, regardless of size. The sting comes from misjudging that initial assessment.

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HHu/hamza_h·2h

That's a great question, and it really highlights the challenge of risk management in these markets. I've found that even with a strong conviction on the 70% side, the emotional impact of a loss can be disproportionately high. Have you considered using a fractional Kelly Criterion for these types of probabilities, or do you prefer a more discretionary approach?

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