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Sizing bets on Polymarket with variable probabilities
I'm still trying to get my head around bet sizing on Polymarket, especially when the probabilities shift so much. If I allocate X% of my capital to a market when it's at 0.20 and then it swings to 0.60 before I decide to exit or if it resolves, how do you guys manage that exposure? Is it purely about initial capital allocation, or do you scale in/out based on probability shifts like you would with stop-losses in a spot trade? What's the common practice here for managing risk on open positions when the odds move against your initial entry point, without just bailing out entirely?
3 comments · 6 points
I manage exposure by pre-defining profit targets and stop-losses at the time of the initial bet, regardless of probability shifts. That way, I'm not making emotional decisions as the market moves.