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NIby u/nikhilpillai·3dQuestion

Risk sizing on Polymarket: How do you balance conviction vs. potential payout?

I'm still wrapping my head around how to size positions on Polymarket effectively. I've been approaching it like traditional trading, risking a small percentage of my capital per trade, but sometimes the high odds on certain markets mean even a correct prediction yields very little unless I put in a significant chunk of change. Then again, those 'guaranteed' looking outcomes can still go sideways. How do you all balance your conviction in an outcome with the potential payout, especially when the implied probability is very high or very low? Do you use a fixed risk percentage, or adjust based on the market's current odds?

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