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Polymarket position sizing & 'implied probability' vs. conviction
Been dabbling more in Polymarket lately, trying to get a handle on the nuances. I get the idea of using the market's implied probability as a baseline, but sometimes my own conviction on an outcome feels stronger than what the odds suggest, especially on less liquid markets. How do you all balance your personal edge or analysis against the market's current implied prob when it comes to sizing a position? Do you stick rigidly to a Kelly-like criterion based on the market, or do you adjust based on your 'internal' probability assessment, even if it means a larger stake than the market would imply?
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It's a common dilemma. If your conviction is consistently better than the market's implied probability, especially in less liquid markets, you're either a genius or overlooking a risk factor the market sees. Or both. What kind of edge do you think you have?