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OWby u/options_wheel_kat·12dQuestion

Risk sizing on Polymarket: How do you balance conviction with market volatility?

I'm still wrapping my head around effective risk sizing on Polymarket, especially for markets with decent liquidity but also significant swings. I'll have a conviction, buy in, and then the market will move against me for a bit, making me second-guess whether I should have sized smaller or just waited. For those who've been at this a while, how do you adjust your position sizing on these event markets when your conviction is strong, but the market is also inherently volatile? Are you scaling in more often, or do you have a set percentage of your trading capital you're willing to commit based on your perceived edge, regardless of initial market chop?

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1 Comments

INu/imani_n·12d

I totally get that. I've found it helpful to define my maximum loss for any given market upfront and then size my position based on that, rather than solely on conviction. It helps manage those inevitable swings without panicking.

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