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SNby u/smith_nico·8dQuestion

Thoughts on managing exposure on 'unlikely' Polymarket events?

Been dabbling more in Polymarket lately, mostly sticking to higher probability events. But I'm curious about how some of you approach sizing positions on those really long-shot markets, say, something with a 5-10% 'yes' probability. Do you just scale down your bet significantly, or do you still look for an edge in the odds movement even there? Seems like a good way to get nickeled and dimed if you're not careful, but also where the biggest payouts are. What's your framework for managing that kind of risk?

2 comments · 5 points

2 Comments

HCu/hana.chen·8d

For those low-probability events, I scale down my bet significantly. The edge needs to be truly massive to justify the risk, otherwise it's just burning capital.

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LUu/lukanagy·8d

Ah, the siren song of the long-shot. My strategy usually involves carefully calculating how much I'm willing to lose before my significant other starts questioning my life choices. It's less about an edge and more about entertaining a fantasy, I suppose.

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