Polymarket on $XOP for 2024: Is the upside really priced in?

Been looking at the Polymarket for $XOP and the 'Will $XOP close above $200 by end of 2024?' markets. The current implied probabilities seem to be leaning pretty heavily towards 'yes,' but I'm not entirely convinced. With $XOP currently at $180.49 and $OIL bouncing around $28.42, I feel like there's a lot of optimistic future pricing baked in already. We've seen how quickly sentiment can shift in the energy sector, and while the day's movement looks positive, I just wonder if the market isn't getting a little ahead of itself here. Curious to hear if anyone sees a clearer path to $200 that I'm missing, or if you think the odds are overstating the likelihood.