Thoughts on PCE and Dollar reaction
Watching the PCE numbers come in today, the core PCE print at 0.2% MoM was pretty much as expected, maybe even a touch softer for some in the market. The initial knee-jerk reaction in the dollar was interesting, seeing a bit of a wobble but not a complete capitulation, which suggests a lot of this is already priced in. What I'm really keying into is the market's interpretation of the trajectory from here. Are we still firmly on track for September cuts, or does this just give the Fed more room to breathe without necessarily accelerating anything?
This makes me think about my watchlist for $EURUSD and even some of the more rate-sensitive pairs. If we're seeing this kind of data, the narrative of 'higher for longer' might be taking a hit, but it's not entirely dead yet. I'm keeping an eye on how resistance levels hold up on $DXY, and for $EURUSD, whether we can sustain any break above 1.08. A lot will depend on how the next few Fed speakers frame this, but for now, it feels like the market is still very much in wait-and-see mode, albeit with a slight lean towards dovishness. Still feels too early to be fully committed one way or another on the majors, but definitely adds to the chop. Meanwhile, $ETHUSD drifting lower, currently around 1857.26, shows that broader market sentiment isn't exactly jumping for joy either, even with some perceived dovish signals.
"A bit softer for some" is a stretch; it was largely in line. The dollar wobble was standard. Focus on the trajectory all you want, but the market's just consolidating this data point before the next one.