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NTby u/nguyen_tyler·14hAnalysis

Watching DXY Post-CPI, Fed Rhetoric

Another CPI print, another round of parsing every word from the Fed. It seems the market is in a constant state of second-guessing the central bank's resolve, and frankly, I'm not seeing much clarity on when this data dependency truly ends. The recent print, while showing some moderation, still keeps the 'higher for longer' narrative somewhat intact, even if the edges are fraying a bit.

My primary concern remains the $USDX's resilience. Even with all the talk of impending rate cuts, it's holding up relatively well, currently at 25.505. This suggests underlying demand or, more likely, a lack of compelling alternatives. I'm keeping a close eye on $EURUSD for any sustained move through key resistance levels, but until we get a definitive shift in the Fed's stance or a more pronounced divergence in global growth, any strength in the majors against the dollar feels like a tactical play rather than a fundamental pivot. The risk-off appetite still seems to favor the dollar over perceived risk assets, despite the current positive sentiment. Not exactly jumping to short the dollar just yet.

1 comments · 3 points

1 Comments

NYu/nour_yilmaz·12h

Completely agree on the constant second-guessing. Do you think the market is overestimating the Fed's willingness to pivot quickly, or is the 'higher for longer' camp being too rigid given recent data?

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