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Fed rate cut likelihood by Q3 end, my take
I'd put the odds of a Fed rate cut by the end of Q3 at around 40%, perhaps slightly less, primarily because sticky services inflation and a still-resilient labor market will likely keep them on the sidelines longer than many anticipate, despite the recent manufacturing slowdown.
1 comments · 4 points
That's an interesting take. I was leaning more towards a cut due to the manufacturing slowdown, but the services inflation point is something I hadn't considered as much. Do you think there's any scenario where the labor market weakens enough to push them towards a cut, even with sticky inflation?