BTC hitting 70k again by end of April: a probabilistic take

Been watching the $BTC action closely, especially after that dip. The confluence of macro factors, like the Fed's stance and the upcoming halving, makes for a fascinating setup. While the initial post-ETF euphoria has clearly faded, the underlying demand structure still looks solid on-chain. I'm putting the odds of us seeing $BTC touch 70k again by the end of April at around 40%. My reasoning isn't based on a parabolic run, but rather a gradual grind up, potentially fueled by institutional re-accumulation if the broader market holds its nerve. We saw strong support defend the recent lows, and the longer-term holders haven't shown significant capitulation. It's not a slam dunk, especially with the general market volatility ($OIL still holding up, $EURCHF range-bound), but the path of least resistance could be higher if dip buyers re-emerge and global liquidity remains accommodative. A break above 66k would significantly increase those odds, in my view.