Bitcoin's Q2 trajectory and the upcoming halving's impact

Been watching $BTC closely this quarter, and the setup feels… weighty. The recent consolidation around the high 60s has been fascinating. We've seen resistance firm up, but demand on dips is clearly still present. Looking ahead to month-end, I'd give us a 60% chance of seeing $BTC test the $73,000 level again. The reasoning isn't just about the halving narrative, which is largely priced in, but more about the sustained institutional interest and the thinning supply on exchanges. However, a significant macro shock, say a surprise hawkish Fed pivot, could easily see us retesting the $60,000 range, which I'd assign a 40% probability to for any sustained period. It's a game of two halves right now, balancing supply-demand mechanics against broader risk-off sentiment. The next few weeks are critical for establishing the Q2 range.