On BTC's Q2 close, and the macro backdrop

Been looking at the macro picture, and the Q2 close for $BTC is shaping up to be a bit of a nail-biter. Given the current hawkish signals from the Fed and the general risk-off sentiment bleeding into growth assets, I'd say there's a roughly 60% chance we see BTC dip below $60k before month-end. We've had a strong run, no doubt, but that $60k level feels like a psychological and technical line in the sand that could get tested if the macro narrative keeps leaning toward tighter liquidity. The daily charts are showing some weakening momentum, and while $MATIC is having a decent day, the broader crypto market still feels heavily influenced by $BTC's direction. Not advice, just my read on probabilities here.