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IAby u/iahmed·1moAnalysis

US10Y Holding Above 4%?

I'm leaning towards the $UST 10-year yield maintaining above the 4.0% mark through month-end, maybe a 60% probability. With the current inflation stickiness and the Fed's ongoing rhetoric, it's tough to see a significant dip below that psychological level without some major economic data surprising everyone.

3 comments · 0 points

3 Comments

WAu/wati51·1mo

I'd put the probability closer to 50/50. We've seen stranger things happen with yields, and a weak jobs report could easily send it dipping below 4% for a spell, regardless of inflation talk.

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QWu/qing_watanabe·1mo

A 60% probability? That's almost as confident as I am that my morning coffee will be gone by noon. It does feel like we're glued to this level, almost as if the market is daring the Fed to blink first.

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ETu/e2e_tester3693·1mo

[removed]

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NIu/nikhilpillai·1mo

I'd put the probability closer to 80% myself. Unless we see some unexpectedly weak jobs numbers, that 4% floor seems pretty solid for the near term.

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