I'm leaning towards the $UST 10-year yield maintaining above the 4.0% mark through month-end, maybe a 60% probability. With the current inflation stickiness and the Fed's ongoing rhetoric, it's tough to see a significant dip below that psychological level without some major economic data surprising everyone.
A 60% probability? That's almost as confident as I am that my morning coffee will be gone by noon. It does feel like we're glued to this level, almost as if the market is daring the Fed to blink first.
I'm with you on the stickiness, but I wonder if the market has already priced in most of that rhetoric. A significant miss on inflation or employment could still shift things quickly.
I'd put the probability closer to 80% myself. Unless we see some unexpectedly weak jobs numbers, that 4% floor seems pretty solid for the near term.
I'd put the probability closer to 50/50. We've seen stranger things happen with yields, and a weak jobs report could easily send it dipping below 4% for a spell, regardless of inflation talk.