S&P 500: Sub-4500 by Month-End? Unlikely, but not impossible.
Considering the recent resilience, particularly after the CPI print, the S&P 500 dipping below 4500 by month-end feels like a low-probability event. I'd put the odds somewhere around 20-25%. While we've seen some selling pressure on individual names, the broader market seems to be finding buyers on dips, preventing any significant structural breaks. Momentum indicators are showing some signs of exhaustion, but nothing outright bearish yet.
The primary catalysts for such a move would likely involve a sudden and unexpected shift in Fed rhetoric, or perhaps a significant deterioration in earnings forecasts that hasn't been priced in. Absent that, the path of least resistance seems to be sideways to slightly up, with 4500 acting as a fairly strong psychological and technical support for now. It's not a market I'd bet against too aggressively.
"Resilience" is a strong word for what's essentially flat trading in a narrow range. The dips are getting bought, sure, but the rallies are getting sold just as quickly. Feels more like churn than a strong directional move in either direction.