SPX 4600 by Month-End? Maybe, but With Headwinds

Been watching the SPX grind lately, and there's a lot of chatter about pushing towards 4600 again before October is out. On the surface, the dip buyers are still present, and there's a degree of resilience despite the inflation chatter. However, I'd put the odds of a clean run to 4600 by month-end at a pretty slim 30-35%. My main concern is the bond market, specifically the continued climb in yields, which could easily cap any significant upside. There's also the lingering worry about what the Fed's next move implies for corporate earnings multiples, which always feels like a sword of Damocles. We might see a retest of 4500, possibly even a brief push higher on momentum, but I suspect the sellers will start to appear en masse closer to 4580-4600 unless we get some surprisingly dovish Fed commentary or a sharp reversal in $USDSEK, implying broader risk-on sentiment, which doesn't seem to be the primary narrative right now. The path of least resistance still feels sideways to slightly down in the near term, with any breakouts needing significant catalysts.