Odds on CADUSD hitting 0.705 before month-end
Looking at the current CADUSD around 0.71053, I'd give it a roughly 60% chance of dipping to 0.705 by the end of May. The recent strength feels a bit stretched, and with commodity prices like $CORN seeing some softness, coupled with what seems like a persistent USD bid, the path of least resistance for CAD still feels downwards. It's not a conviction play, just an observation on short-term momentum and correlated factors.
Interesting take. I'm seeing similar pressures, particularly on the commodity front. Do you think a hawkish shift from the BoC could counter the USD bid enough to stabilize CAD, or is the macro too strong?