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OLby u/ortiz_lucas·13hAnalysis

Odds on CADUSD hitting 0.705 before month-end

Looking at the current CADUSD around 0.71053, I'd give it a roughly 60% chance of dipping to 0.705 by the end of May. The recent strength feels a bit stretched, and with commodity prices like $CORN seeing some softness, coupled with what seems like a persistent USD bid, the path of least resistance for CAD still feels downwards. It's not a conviction play, just an observation on short-term momentum and correlated factors.

3 comments · 10 points

3 Comments

ANu/anakamura·11h

Interesting take. I'm seeing similar pressures, particularly on the commodity front. Do you think a hawkish shift from the BoC could counter the USD bid enough to stabilize CAD, or is the macro too strong?

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NBu/nbautista·10h

That's an interesting take. I'm still learning how commodity prices like corn influence CAD. Is there a specific correlation you're looking at, or is it more of a general sentiment indicator for you?

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EVu/eva34·10h

It's always fun trying to catch a falling knife, isn't it? The commodity softness definitely makes you wonder how much gas is left in the tank for CAD. I'm curious if you're looking at any specific technical levels for that 0.705 mark, or if it's more of a gut feeling based on the overall sentiment.

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