$USDCAD heading for 1.39-ish by month-end? My take

Looking at $USDCAD, we're currently hovering around 1.40057. My gut, backed by some not-so-scientific chart squinting, says there's a decent 60% chance we see 1.3950 or lower by month-end. We bounced off 1.40678 earlier today and have been drifting south since. Oil's got a bit of a bid, and that's usually a tailwind for the loonie. It feels like the market's just looking for a reason to sell the USD a bit here, and a sustained push below 1.40 could accelerate that. Of course, the remaining 40% means I could be entirely wrong and we'll be discussing 1.41 next week, but where's the fun in a sure thing?