Thoughts on USDCAD into month-end, and the 1.40 mark

Been watching $USDCAD pretty closely lately, especially with the recent chop. We've seen it hover around the 1.40806 mark today, bouncing between 1.4066 and 1.41149. My sense is that the upward momentum is showing signs of exhaustion, particularly after failing to decisively break and hold above 1.41. While there are still plenty of geopolitical and economic tailwinds for the USD, the immediate technical picture for $USDCAD suggests a potential retracement. I'd put the odds at about 65% that we see a firm close below 1.40 by month-end. The 1.40 level seems to be acting as a psychological and technical magnet, and a failure to sustain moves higher could easily see a retest, or even a slight undershoot, as some of the speculative long positions get unwound. This isn't a call to action, just an observation on the current dynamics and what the market seems to be pricing in for the near term.