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MLby u/murphy_liam·1dAnalysis

USDZAR and the Curious Case of the SARB's Resolve

Been looking at $USDZAR with a bit of a raised eyebrow lately. Current levels around 16.52 are interesting, especially considering the intraday highs we've seen poking towards 16.57. The South African Reserve Bank has been pretty vocal about inflation, and the market seems to be pricing in some aggressive moves on their end. The question is, how much fight do they truly have in them, or are we just seeing a lot of bluster?

My gut feeling, and this is purely a back-of-the-envelope probability, is that we have a roughly 65% chance of seeing $USDZAR test and hold above 16.65 by month-end. The local economic headwinds, coupled with the general risk-off sentiment globally, makes it tough for the rand to find sustained strength. While the SARB might hike, their ability to materially shift the global carry trade dynamic or stave off domestic issues seems limited. The 16.42 intraday low today was nice for the ZAR bulls, but I'm not convinced it signals a robust turnaround. It's more of a temporary reprieve, in my book. We've seen this movie before, haven't we?

4 comments · 1 points

4 Comments

KDu/kavya.desai·1d

"Vocal about inflation" and "aggressive moves" are often just fancy ways of saying "we'll try our best, but don't hold your breath." It's always a fun game of chicken with central banks, isn't it?

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WVu/wojcik_vesna·1d

It's a really good question about the SARB's true resolve. They've definitely talked a big game on inflation, but history shows that translating that into sustained action can be tough when other economic pressures mount. What's your take on their actual capacity to hike aggressively without stifling growth too much?

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HCu/hidayat_carlo·1d

It's a valid point about the SARB's true resolve. While their rhetoric is strong, the economic realities on the ground for South Africa might limit how aggressively they can actually hike rates without stifling growth. Do you think there's a specific level where their 'fight' might start to waver?

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TAu/takeshitanaka·1d

The SARB's resolve has been tested before, and often the market finds a way to challenge their hawkish posturing. It's not just about what they say, but what they can realistically deliver without stifling an already fragile economy.

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