A look at $ES 7500 by end of Q2

Been thinking about the $ES lately and whether we see 7500 before the end of Q2. On one hand, the momentum has been pretty relentless, especially with any dip getting bought up fairly quickly. We're currently trading around 7354, so it's not a huge stretch. Inflation data has been a bit mixed, but the underlying narrative still seems to be growth-oriented, at least for now.

On the other hand, the velocity of this move is starting to feel a bit stretched. Positioning is probably quite long, and any significant negative catalyst could see a pretty sharp unwinding. I'd put the odds of hitting 7500 by June 30th somewhere around 60%. My reasoning is that while there are headwinds, the market has shown a strong tendency to discount those in favor of continued optimism. The path of least resistance still feels upward, though I'm certainly keeping an eye on how upcoming jobless claims and any Fed commentary land.