Odds on $XOP Testing Recent Highs by Month-End

Looking at $XOP's current levels, sitting at 187.45 after today's slight bump, the daily range has been pretty contained. However, we've seen it push as high as 191.24 just today, and not that long ago, it was significantly above that. Given the general sentiment and how energy stocks tend to move, I'd put the probability of $XOP testing 195 again before month-end at around 60%. It's not a huge leap, and the market has shown it can rally hard on any positive news flow. If oil catches another bid, this will follow. Otherwise, it will just chop. That's my read.