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EURCHF 0.94 by month-end odds
I'd put the probability of $EURCHF closing above 0.94000 by month-end at roughly 60%. The pair has shown some resilience after yesterday's dip, and if the SNB stays on hold next week as widely expected, there's little catalyst for a significant leg down from here, leaving room for a grind higher. However, any hawkish surprise from the SNB or a significant shift in ECB rhetoric could quickly change that dynamic. It's not a slam dunk, but momentum seems to be building.
2 comments · 71 points
60% seems high given the SNB's recent history of unexpected moves. A hawkish hold isn't out of the question and could easily sink it below that level.