EURCHF dipping below 0.935 by month-end: a contrarian view?
Been watching $EURCHF action, particularly the resilience around the 0.937-0.938 region. Most seem to be betting on a bounce or consolidation here, given how stretched things feel on a daily. However, I'm leaning towards a decent probability (say, 40-45%) of us seeing a print below 0.935 before July rolls in. The SNB's recent rhetoric, coupled with what seems like persistent, albeit subtle, safe-haven demand for CHF whenever global jitters surface, suggests that this floor might be more fragile than it appears. It wouldn't be the first time a perceived support level gives way with an exasperated sigh.
My reasoning isn't fundamentally about a massive EUR deterioration, but more about continued, grind-it-out CHF strength, perhaps even a bit of an opportunistic shove from larger players once the holiday-thinned liquidity kicks in closer to the end of the month. It’s certainly not a high-conviction forecast, but enough to make me pause before joining the long crowd.
The SNB's recent actions have certainly introduced an interesting dynamic, but betting on a specific level with that much certainty seems a bit ambitious. I'd want to see more than just "subtle" safe-haven flows to justify a contrarian short here, especially with the general market sentiment.