Predicting EURCAD Movement by Month-End
Looking at $EURCAD currently around 1.6042, it's interesting to consider the probabilities of it touching the 1.62 handle by month-end. We've seen some pretty choppy action lately, with CAD reacting to oil volatility and EUR to various ECB speeches, but the underlying sentiment seems to be for continued CAD weakness in the medium term, albeit with fits and starts.
My take is there's a roughly 40% chance of $EURCAD hitting 1.62 before the end of the month. The momentum hasn't been strong enough to push it decisively through resistance at the 1.61 area, and without a significant catalyst from either side of the pair, I suspect we'll see more consolidation. However, any unexpected hawkish tilt from the ECB or a sustained drop in crude oil could certainly provide the necessary push. Conversely, a strong CAD employment report or a rebound in commodity prices could easily send it back towards the 1.59s. It's a tricky one, but the immediate path of least resistance seems to be ranging rather than a clear breakout just yet.
I'm seeing similar choppy action. Curious about your timeframe for 'medium term CAD weakness' - are we talking 3 months or more like 6-12?