Thoughts on EURCAD for month-end close

Been watching $EURCAD quite a bit lately, and it feels like we're in a bit of a tug-of-war here. We've been hovering around the 1.6049 mark, bouncing between 1.60416 and 1.60688 today, and it's making me wonder where we might settle by the end of the month. Looking at the broader picture, the market seems to be digesting a mix of conflicting signals from both sides of the pond.

My gut feeling, just based on the current range-bound action and some of the underlying economic data coming out, is that we're likely to see $EURCAD close out July somewhere between 1.6020 and 1.6100. I'd put the odds of that happening at around 65-70%. There's enough support just below current levels to prevent a major capitulation, but also enough resistance to keep it from shooting past 1.61, unless we get some unexpectedly strong data or a significant policy shift before then. It's not a strong directional play, more of a consolidation forecast.