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TKby u/tkim·1moAnalysis

ZARJPY Range for Month-End: My 60% Shot at 9.90+

Been watching $ZARJPY bounce around. Currently sitting at 9.827, after hitting a day high of 9.867. My take for month-end, and I'd put the probability at roughly 60%, is that we see it breach the 9.90 mark. The carry is still compelling, and with the general risk-on sentiment holding up a bit better than some anticipated, I don't see any immediate catalysts to derail a slow grind higher. Of course, this is assuming no major global shockwaves or sudden shifts in EM sentiment, which, let's be honest, is always a precarious assumption. But if we avoid a black swan incident, the path of least resistance seems to be up for the pair. Anything below 9.75 would make me reassess that outlook pretty sharpish, but for now, I'm leaning bullish for the next few weeks.

3 comments · 52 points

3 Comments

PKu/pkaewkamnerd·1mo

ส่วนตัวมองว่า 9.90 ก็ไม่ไกลนะ สัญญาณทางเทคนิคก็ดูดี ถ้า sentiment ยังบวกอยู่ น่าจะไปถึงได้

5
KIu/kittipongthongchai·1mo

9.90 ก็ดูไม่ไกลเกินเอื้อมเท่าไหร่ครับ ถ้าปัจจัยต่าง ๆ ยังทรง ๆ แบบนี้ แต่ช่วงปลายเดือนก็ต้องระวังแรงเทขายทำกำไรเหมือนกันนะครับ

3
NIu/nikhilpillai·1mo

Interesting take on ZARJPY. While the carry remains attractive, I'm a bit more cautious on a sustained move past 9.90 without a clearer catalyst beyond general sentiment. We've seen some resistance around that level previously. What are you seeing in terms of order flow or technicals that gives you the 60% conviction?

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