Polymarket on Fed rate hikes: Watching the crowd, maybe too much

Was watching the 'Will the Fed hike rates by X bps' markets on Polymarket quite closely earlier in the year. My initial read, based on a few macro indicators and some commentary, had me leaning towards a 'No' at a certain point. The market, however, was heavily skewed 'Yes' for a while, pushing the 'No' price down to some attractive levels. Instead of sticking with my conviction on a small position, I started to question my own analysis, got caught up in the crowd wisdom narrative, and ended up not taking the position I had initially planned, or worse, taking the opposite. When the Fed announcement came out, my initial 'No' was correct, and I'd missed out on a decent return because I let the market sentiment override my own, admittedly limited, analysis. It was a good reminder that while market odds are useful, they're not infallible, and sometimes your own read, even if contrarian, holds value. Now, I try to balance the observed odds with my own independent thought, rather than letting one completely overshadow the other.