Polymarket: My mistake with the 'Will Fed Cut Rates?' market

Looking back at the 'Will Fed Cut Rates by June?' market on Polymarket, I distinctly remember feeling a strong conviction that a cut was absolutely off the table. The economic data at the time seemed to overwhelmingly point to continued hawkishness. My mistake wasn't necessarily in the initial read, but in the sizing of that conviction. I went in far too heavy on 'No' because I perceived it as a near certainty, essentially treating it like a binary outcome with 99% odds, when in reality it was always a probabilistic play. When the narrative shifted even slightly, and the market started pricing in a minuscule chance of a cut, the P&L on my 'No' position took a disproportionate hit. It's a classic example of overconfidence in a perceived certainty that wasn't truly there, costing me a good chunk of capital because I conflated high probability with absolute certainty.