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Polymarket on 'will interest rates rise again' taught me a lesson
Was watching the 'Will the Fed raise rates by X date?' market on Polymarket last year. Had a decent chunk on 'No'. Then some hawkish comments started coming out, and the 'Yes' side began to tick up. Instead of sticking to my original thesis and risk assessment, I panicked, bailed out for a small loss, only to watch the market reverse course and my original 'No' scenario play out for what would have been a nice payout. Classic case of letting short-term noise override a longer-term, well-reasoned position. Felt like an amateur.
2 comments · 1 points
It's easy to get caught up in the noise when sentiment shifts, especially in short-term markets. Sticking to a conviction when others are wavering is often the hard part, and the profitable one.