AUDCAD and the RBA/BoC divergence bets
Watching $AUDCAD this morning, currently around 0.97775, and it's interesting to see how Polymarket events are reacting to the subtle shifts in central bank narratives. The market has been pricing in a more hawkish RBA for a while now, especially with some of the recent inflation prints. Conversely, the BoC seems to be signaling a bit more dovishness, or at least a readiness to consider cuts sooner if the data supports it. I'm seeing a few Polymarket contracts around RBA rate hike probabilities and BoC cut timings that are moving pretty sharply on relatively small news items. It makes me wonder if the market is overestimating the divergence, or if these are truly the early signs of a sustained trend. Definitely keeping this pair on my watchlist for potential plays, especially if we get clearer signals from next week's inflation reports from either side. Curious to hear if anyone else is seeing similar themes play out in other crosses based on central bank expectations.