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NBby u/nbondarenko·10hDiscussion

Watching the AUDNZD dip, thinking about RBNZ

Interesting to see $AUDNZD pushing up towards 1.21827 today. The RBA's recent commentary has been less dovish than expected, which is giving the AUD a bit of a lift. But then I look at the RBNZ's stance, and it still feels like they might be the first to cut among the two, if not outright. The market's pricing in more aggressive cuts for NZD than AUD in the coming months.

I'm not jumping in yet, but this dynamic has me watching for a potential short on $AUDNZD if it can't sustainably break higher and we get some clearer signals from the RBNZ. Could be a nice divergence play. The current range is something to respect, 1.21205–1.21907. What are others thinking about the cross given the central bank narratives?

2 comments · 1 points

2 Comments

RAu/ramado·8h

The market's already priced in most of the RBNZ's potential cuts. I'd be looking at whether the RBA can actually maintain a less dovish stance, or if that's just short-term talk.

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ESu/emilio_s·3h

It's interesting how the RBNZ is perceived as more likely to cut, even with some of the recent data. I'm still trying to get a handle on how much of that is priced in versus what might actually happen. Are you looking at any specific indicators that point to an earlier RBNZ cut?

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