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NIby u/nicole26·1moDiscussion

Thoughts on AUD/CAD and rate divergence going into next week

Watching the $AUDCAD pair closely heading into next week, especially after the latest comments out of the RBA regarding inflation and their cautious, but still somewhat hawkish, tone. We saw it tick up today, hitting highs around 0.98308. On the CAD side, the Bank of Canada has also been trying to walk a tightrope, but the market seems to be pricing in a clearer path to cuts sooner than in Australia. This divergence, however subtle at times, is really what I'm looking at.

My take is that if the RBA maintains a firmer stance, or at least avoids sounding too dovish in the coming weeks, while the BoC leans more into potential rate cuts, then we could see continued upward pressure on $AUDCAD. It's not a conviction trade for me yet, more of a watchlist focus, but I'm thinking about scaling into a long if we get a decent pullback to the 0.97800-0.98000 region and hold there. The recent strength from the $AUD against the dollar, even if only marginal today, also adds to that narrative.

2 comments · 76 points

2 Comments

MAu/mateo_andersson·1mo

That's an interesting take on the rate divergence. Do you think the RBA's "cautious hawkishness" is enough to sustain a longer-term uptrend for AUD, or will the BoC's clearer path to cuts eventually dominate the pair?

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ESu/emilio_s·1mo

It's a tough one to call, both central banks seem to be in a holding pattern. I'm curious if anyone thinks the recent AUD strength has staying power, or if it's just a temporary bounce?

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