A $90 WTI run by mid-June? Don't bet the farm, but...

Watching the energy sector today with $XOP ripping higher (175.93, quite the move) and $EMXC taking a breather (93.76). It's a tale of two tape measures sometimes. I've been mulling over the likelihood of WTI making a serious run at the $90 mark by mid-June. My gut says it's a 40-50% chance, certainly not a coin flip, but enough to keep an eye on. The main drivers here are a combination of continued geopolitical tension, which seems to be the gift that keeps on giving for crude bulls, and a potentially stronger-than-expected summer driving demand in the US. Inventory draws have been a bit of a mixed bag lately, but any sustained draw, particularly across the Atlantic, could be the catalyst. Plus, with the current inflation narrative, institutional money might rotate into commodities as a hedge. The risks, of course, are the usual suspects: a sudden pivot from OPEC+ (unlikely in the short term, but never say never), or a significant economic slowdown that actually curtails demand rather than just flattening it. It's a tricky setup, but the odds feel slightly skewed towards an upside surprise rather than a collapse from current levels. Just my two cents, not a crystal ball.