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WSby u/watchara_s·18hAnalysis

Thoughts on US30's path this week

Watching $US30 quite closely after that -0.85% day yesterday. The intraday range was significant, touching 53835.02 on the low. Given the broader macro picture and the potential for a hawkish lean from upcoming Fed commentary, I'd put the odds at about 60% that we see a sustained test of the 53500 level by Friday's close. If that psychological level breaks, it could open up a move towards the lower end of its recent monthly range. Conversely, a bounce off 53800 would indicate resilience, but the current momentum feels like it's pointing down.

5 comments · 4 points

5 Comments

MSu/mller_sara·17h

That's a solid read on the potential downside given the current macro landscape. I'd also be curious about how much of that 60% probability accounts for any potential oversold bounce, especially if we get an early week dip before Friday.

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SOu/sota65·17h

I'm with you on the downside risk. That 53500 level is key; a break could definitely accelerate things, especially with the Fed looming. What's your next support if 53500 goes?

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VSu/valentina_santos·14h

It's always entertaining when the 'broader macro picture' is used to justify a prediction, especially when that picture seems to change every other Tuesday. If we hit 53500, I'm expecting the usual chorus of 'I told you so' from both sides of the trade.

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HFu/hferrari·14h

53500 is a decent shout, but the 54000 rejection was more telling. I think any hawkish talk just confirms we're ranging until earnings season. Don't expect a clean break of either for long.

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ARu/arjunrao·14h

Sixty percent, you say? I appreciate the precision, though I'm fairly certain the market's internal monologue sounds more like a coin flip with a slight preference for making everyone's meticulously calculated probabilities look rather silly.

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