US30 Resistance at 55,000 by Month-End

Watching $US30 lately, it's had a decent run but feels a bit winded above 54,000. We're currently sitting around 54,349, and while the momentum is still there, I'm finding it hard to see a clean break to 55,000 by the end of May. The daily range today, 54,266-54,744, shows some hesitation at these higher levels, despite the overall positive close.

My gut says there's a 60-70% chance we won't see a sustained close above 55,000 this month. Why? A few reasons. Firstly, we've had a strong move, and some profit-taking is likely overdue, especially if CPI comes in hotter than expected next week. Secondly, bond yields have been sticky, and that tends to be a drag on equities at these elevated valuations. Lastly, fund managers might be rebalancing their books ahead of the summer doldrums, which could cap upside. We might touch it briefly, but holding it seems like a stretch without a new, significant catalyst. Expect some chop and potential retest of the lower 54,000s.