US30 maintaining above 53500 by month-end - what are the odds?

Been looking at the $US30 lately, specifically its resilience. We're currently sitting around 53727.7, and it's been a bit choppy, as expected, but the dips seem to be bought up pretty consistently. Thinking about what it would take for us to stay above the 53500 mark by the end of May.

From where I'm sitting, the current momentum, even with the slight daily dip today, still feels constructive. There isn't any major macro news on the immediate horizon that screams 'bearish catalyst' for the short term, though obviously, things can change quickly. Earnings season is largely behind us, and while some reports weren't stellar, the overall sentiment hasn't completely buckled.

I'd put the odds of the $US30 maintaining above 53500 by May 31st at around 65-70%. The downside seems pretty well supported around the 53000-53200 area, and any significant retrace would likely need a fresh narrative to push through that. What are your thoughts? Anyone seeing something different?